This research project examines an hitherto under-examined driver of two of the main problems representative democracies are wrestling with: horizontal affective polarization among citizens and vertical political dissatisfaction with politicians.
The ‘new’ driver is the perception of differentness and similarity (PoDS), referring to citizens' perception that other- or like-minded citizens and politicians are not only politically different or similar—they have other or similar political preferences—but that they are also different human beings with different lifestyles that encompass different social, cultural, and economic features. We expect that ingroup-outgroup mechanisms make that such broad perceptions of differences lead to deepening intergroup animus. Although the theoretical logic of perceptual differences deepening dislike of others is not new, it has never been applied empirically to the study of horizontal polarization and vertical dissatisfaction.
The NotLikeUs project is divided into 5 different Working Packages (WPs), each with their own empirical focus and methodological strategies – ranging from (panel) surveys to experiments, content analyses, focus groups, and interviews. These different WPs complement each other as illustrated by the image.
The geographical focus of the project is Belgium, where different data collections are taking place outside but also before, during and after its Federal, Regional, and European elections that are held simultaneously in June 2024.
WP1 conceptualizes, describes, and measures citizens’ perception of differentness and similarity (PoDS) of politically other- and like-minded citizens and politicians. The main expectation of WP1 is that people consider political out-group members and politicians to be different from themselves, and that those differences relate to a broad array of non-political (or not obviously political) attributes such as social, economic and cultural features.
WP1 goes beyond mere description by analysing which precise features or attributes of other- and like-minded citizens and politicians are most salient in constructing the perceived differentness and/or similarity (e.g., whether out-party supporters are considered to have other friends or rather to have different cultural tastes) and how the perception of differentness relates to the perception of similarity of the own group. Methodologically, WP1 relies on surveys, interviews, and focus groups.
WP2 examines the antecedents of perceptions of differentness and similarity (PoDS). The main goal of this work package is to examine the factors that could activate, or artificially induce, distorted perceptions of differentness and similarity among citizens and between citizens and politicians. Our expectation for WP2 is that a whole range of factors situated at different levels drive these perceptions.
The first step is to assess whether citizens’ perceptions of differentness and similarity toward both fellow citizens and politicians are anchored in real-life differences. In other words, do they match objective indicators or represent exaggerations of underlying prototypes?
After that, we focus on three levels where distorted perceptions could originate: the micro, meso, and macro level. At the micro level we look at political socialization and at exposure to other-minded citizens. At the meso level, we focus on the influence of public discourse by intermediate actors, such as political parties and social movements. Finally, at the macro level, we analyse institutional arrangements and public policies. Different methods are used for this WP, such as survey experiments, network analyses, and content analyses.
WP3 examines the consequences of perceptions of differentness and similarity (PoDS) – particularly on horizontal polarization (toward citizens) and vertical dissatisfaction (toward politicians). The main hypothesis is that perceptions of social, economic, and cultural differentness with regard to politically other-minded citizens and to politicians increase polarization among citizens and dissatisfaction with politicians. To understand and test these relationships and effects, a multitude of methods will be used such as panel surveys, experiments, interviews and focus groups.
A challenge for WP3 will be to lay bare the true causal effect of perceptions on evaluations. The causal arrow could point in the opposite direction: because one dislikes other-minded citizens and politicians for merely political reasons, one perceives them also to be more different socially, economically, and culturally. WP3 therefore substantially relies on experiments to disentangle these intricate, and potentially reciprocal, relationships.
WP4 examines how both horizontal polarization (toward citizens) and vertical dissatisfaction (toward politicians) affect citizens’ attitudes towards the political system and whether these could spur anti-democratic behaviour. Though both polarization and dissatisfaction are normal phenomena in any democracy, in their extreme form they might also endanger democracy.
It remains underexplored thus far how both factors can fuel into anti-democratic behaviour among citizens, such as a rejection of the election outcome, refusing to obey the law, or supporting political violence. WP4 taps into this, and also studies whether electoral success might drive citizens to ignore democratic erosion, simply because it benefits their home team. The main methodological tool used by this working package are survey experiments.
WP5 aims to look broadly into solutions on the antecedents and consequences side of the perception of differentness and similarity (PoDS). The precise content of this WP will evolve in close conversation with the results of WP1-WP4. Given the complexity of the phenomena we study, no one-size-fits-all solution can address perceived differentness and its consequences, and we test a variety of solutions on different levels. The methodological focus of WP5 depends on the foreseen solutions and ranges from interviews to survey experiments.